從通用人工智慧到超級人工智慧

摘要

過去十年間，建構人類層級通用人工智慧已從遙不可及的推測，轉變為許多大型人工智慧組織具體鎖定的未來十年目標。達成此目標將對人類社會產生深遠且廣泛的影響，從而為未來十年衍生出諸多複雜問題。本報告探討在機器智慧連續體中，人工智慧本身如何在後通用人工智慧世界中持續發展。此連續體的終點——通用AI，已在理論上獲得充分理解，為本報告的核心焦點提供部分形式基礎：從人類層級通用人工智慧過渡至通用人工智慧超級智能——直觀上可理解為比大型人類組織更具智慧與認知能力的系統。在定義超級智慧後，報告討論了從通用人工智慧邁向超級智慧的四種潛在路徑：擴展規模通用AI、AI典範轉移、遞迴式改進，以及從大規模多智能體集體中湧現超級智慧。接著探討這些路徑中可能存在的摩擦與瓶頸。判定這些摩擦的影響可忽略或重大，將衍生一系列具體的開放性研究問題。由於預測超級智慧進展存在極大不確定性，無法排除未來數年AI發展可能持續加速的可能性。這意味著因人類層級通用人工智慧問世而引發單一變革性階躍變遷的圖景，或許並不準確。更貼切的展望，可能是由AI驅動的科技突破在多個科學與技術領域引發連串變革性社會轉變。為此願景做好準備，需要全球規模且跨學科的大規模努力。

English

Over the last decade, building human-level artificial general intelligence has moved from far-fetched speculation to being a concrete next-decade target for many of the largest AI organisations. Achieving this goal would have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society, which raises many complex questions for the decade ahead. This report investigates how AI itself might continue to develop in a post-AGI world along the continuum of machine intelligence. The endpoint of this continuum, Universal AI, is theoretically well understood, which provides some formal grounding for the main focus of this report: the transition from human-level AGI to artificial general superintelligence, which, intuitively, can be understood as a system that is more intelligent and cognitively capable than large organisations of humans. After characterizing ASI, the report discusses four potential pathways from AGI to ASI: scaling AGI, AI paradigm shifts, recursive improvement, and ASI emerging from large-scale multi-agent collectives. The report then discusses possible frictions and bottlenecks along these pathways. Determining whether the impact of these frictions will be negligible or substantial raises a number of concrete open research questions. Due to large uncertainties for predicting ASI progress, it cannot be ruled out that AI progress might continue to accelerate over the next years. This could imply that the image of a single transformative step change, caused by the introduction of human-level AGI into our society, could be inaccurate. More apt might be the prospect of a series of transformative societal changes caused by AI-enabled progress and breakthroughs across many areas of science and technology. Preparing for this prospect requires a massively interdisciplinary endeavour of global scope and interest.