印度尼西亚苏拉威西莫罗瓦利工业园镍加工产能扩张对海岸水体透明度下降的因果归因研究

摘要

印度尼西亚的镍矿出口禁令推动了中苏拉威西海岸的印尼莫罗瓦利工业园（IMIP）冶炼与湿法冶炼产能的快速扩张，使其成为全球最大的综合性镍加工基地。这种工业化进程是否导致邻近海洋环境退化尚待量化研究。我们采用贝叶斯结构时间序列（BSTS）因果推断方法，基于多年代际、多传感器卫星海洋水色数据中的490纳米漫衰减系数K_d(490)，检验IMIP扩张与近岸浊度变化之间的因果关系。通过共识性结构断点识别、基于班达海反事实参照的显著后验因果效应估计，以及无分布安慰剂排序检验，共同证实了从初期镍铁生产转向电池级镍高压酸浸设施超速扩张后，沿海水体透明度出现恶化。卫星遥感土地覆盖分析独立佐证了这一时间节点，显示IMIP区域内建成区大幅扩展与森林覆盖同步减少。由此引发的真光层变浅现象出现在滋养高海洋生物多样性的贫营养水域，即使中等程度的光学退化也可能损害珊瑚光合作用并压缩礁栖生物的垂直生存空间。这些发现量化了印尼矿物下游化政策讨论中缺失的海洋环境代价，并展示了一种可推广的、基于卫星数据的准实验框架，适用于数据稀缺的热带沿海工业区因果影响评估。

English

Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, K_d(490), to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings.

印度尼西亚苏拉威西莫罗瓦利工业园镍加工产能扩张对海岸水体透明度下降的因果归因研究

Causal Attribution of Coastal Water Clarity Degradation to Nickel Processing Expansion at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, Sulawesi

摘要

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