arXiv: 2607.14825

代理測量中的聚合偏誤：夜間燈光與地方經濟活動

Aggregation Bias in Proxy Measurement: Nighttime Lights and Local Economic Activity

July 16, 2026

作者: Davide Fiaschi, Angela Parenti, Cristiano Ricci

econ.EMecon.EM

摘要

本文研究高分辨率信号聚合至行政单元时，能否恢复未观测到的局部经济活动。我们针对由经济活动生成但用于在较粗糙空间支撑上预测该活动的信号，构建了一个反向回归框架。主要定理将预测弹性分解为基本弹性、反向回归衰减以及由单元大小和单元内离散度驱动的空间聚合项，表明聚合使弹性趋近于1。蒙特卡洛证据证实了该分解，并阐明了可转移性条件。将VIIRS夜间灯光与巴西、意大利、美国、印度尼西亚和肯尼亚的地方GDP或收入数据进行应用，结果表明地方校准主要适用于较富裕的环境。

English

This paper studies when high-resolution signals aggregated to administrative units can recover unobserved local economic activity. We develop a reverse-regression framework for signals generated by activity but used to predict it at coarser spatial supports. The main theorem decomposes predictive elasticity into elementary elasticity, reverse-regression attenuation, and a spatial aggregation term driven by unit size and within-unit dispersion, showing aggregation pulls elasticities toward one. Monte Carlo evidence confirms the decomposition and clarifies transferability conditions. Applications to VIIRS nighttime lights and local GDP or income in Brazil, Italy, the United States, Indonesia, and Kenya support local calibration mainly in richer contexts.