测量原始积累：针对印尼PIK2资本主义圈地的信息论研究方法

Measuring Primitive Accumulation: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Capitalist Enclosure in PIK2, Indonesia

March 14, 2026

作者: Sandy Hardian Susanto Herho, Alfita Puspa Handayani, Karina Aprilia Sujatmiko, Faruq Khadami, Iwan Pramesti Anwar

cs.AI

摘要

为投机性巨型开发项目进行的大规模圈地构成一种非均衡空间过程，其演变速度、拓扑形态和不可逆性至今缺乏量化研究。我们利用2017-2024年八年间10米分辨率的哨兵二号土地利用/覆被数据，对印度尼西亚雅加达北部Pantai Indah Kapuk 2（PIK2）沿海巨型开发项目展开分析。通过马克思概率单纯形将地表像元划分为公域、农耕区和资本区三大类，基于费舍尔-拉奥几何距离测度发现2019-2020年间出现0.405弧度/年的转型脉冲，这与主要施工阶段高度吻合。吸收性马尔可夫链分析显示耕地和乔木覆被区的预期建成环境吸收时间分别为46.0年和38.1年，建成区自维持率高达96.4%。渗流分析表明当占据概率p∈[0.096, 0.162]时，包含89-95%建成像元的巨型连通组件持续存在，该阈值远低于随机渗流临界值p_c≈0.593，证实空间增长具有规划性而非随机性。城市边界的盒维数从d_f=1.316增至1.397，符合前沿扩张日趋不规则的特征。这些结果表明，信息几何与统计力学工具能以定量精度刻画资本空间积累的运动学与拓扑特征。

English

Large-scale land enclosure for speculative mega-development constitutes a non-equilibrium spatial process whose velocity, topology, and irreversibility remain poorly quantified. We study the Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 (PIK2) coastal mega-development north of Jakarta, Indonesia, using eight years (2017--2024) of Sentinel-2 land-use/land-cover (LULC) data at 10-meter resolution. The landscape is projected onto a Marxian probability simplex partitioning terrestrial pixels into Commons, Agrarian, and Capital fractions. Fisher-Rao (FR) geodesic distances on this simplex identify a transformation pulse of 0.405~rad/yr during 2019--2020, coinciding with major construction activity. Absorbing Markov chain analysis yields expected absorption times into the built environment of 46.0~years for cropland and 38.1~years for tree cover, with a pooled built-area self-retention rate of 96.4%. Percolation analysis reveals that a giant connected component containing 89--95% of all built pixels persists at occupation probabilities p in [0.096, 0.162], far below the random percolation threshold p_c approx 0.593, indicating planned rather than stochastic spatial growth. The box-counting fractal dimension of the urban boundary increases from d_f = 1.316 to 1.397, consistent with increasingly irregular frontier expansion. These results suggest that information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can characterize the kinematic and topological signatures of capitalist spatial accumulation with quantitative precision.