开放智能的经济学：模型生态系统中的权力格局与参与路径探析

Economies of Open Intelligence: Tracing Power & Participation in the Model Ecosystem

November 27, 2025

作者: Shayne Longpre, Christopher Akiki, Campbell Lund, Atharva Kulkarni, Emily Chen, Irene Solaiman, Avijit Ghosh, Yacine Jernite, Lucie-Aimée Kaffee

cs.AI

摘要

自2019年以来，Hugging Face模型库已成为全球共享开放权重AI模型的核心平台。通过发布涵盖完整历史周期的周度模型下载数据集（2020年6月至2025年8月）及模型元数据，我们对开放模型经济中的集中度动态与演进特征展开了迄今最严谨的实证研究。本研究涵盖85.1万个模型、每模型200余项聚合属性及22亿次下载数据，揭示了经济力量的根本性重构：谷歌、Meta和OpenAI主导的美国开放权重产业优势急剧削弱，非隶属开发者、社区组织及至2025年崛起的中国产业力量（以DeepSeek和Qwen模型为代表）正引领市场格局重组。我们通过统计显著性分析发现：模型平均参数量增长17倍，多模态生成（3.4倍）、量化技术（5倍）与专家混合架构（7倍）呈爆发式增长，但数据透明度出现令人担忧的滑坡——2025年开放权重模型首次在数量上超越真正开源模型。研究还揭示出新兴开发者中介层的崛起，其专注于对基础模型进行量化优化与适应性调整以兼顾效能与艺术表达。为支持持续研究与社会监督，我们同步开放完整数据集及交互式仪表板，助力实时监测开放模型经济的集中度演变与特性演进。

English

Since 2019, the Hugging Face Model Hub has been the primary global platform for sharing open weight AI models. By releasing a dataset of the complete history of weekly model downloads (June 2020-August 2025) alongside model metadata, we provide the most rigorous examination to-date of concentration dynamics and evolving characteristics in the open model economy. Our analysis spans 851,000 models, over 200 aggregated attributes per model, and 2.2B downloads. We document a fundamental rebalancing of economic power: US open-weight industry dominance by Google, Meta, and OpenAI has declined sharply in favor of unaffiliated developers, community organizations, and, as of 2025, Chinese industry, with DeepSeek and Qwen models potentially heralding a new consolidation of market power. We identify statistically significant shifts in model properties, a 17X increase in average model size, rapid growth in multimodal generation (3.4X), quantization (5X), and mixture-of-experts architectures (7X), alongside concerning declines in data transparency, with open weights models surpassing truly open source models for the first time in 2025. We expose a new layer of developer intermediaries that has emerged, focused on quantizing and adapting base models for both efficiency and artistic expression. To enable continued research and oversight, we release the complete dataset with an interactive dashboard for real-time monitoring of concentration dynamics and evolving properties in the open model economy.